Lietuvos pramonininkų konfederacija (LPK) nuo 2015 m. rengia ir pristato Pramonės Lūkesčių Indeksą (PLI) – apklausos pagrindu paruoštą aukščiausio lygio Lietuvos vadovų nuomonių ir prognozių analizę. Pirmoje šio pusmečio PLI dalyje aptariamos pagrindinės gamybos ir gamybinių pajėgumų, eksporto, vidaus vartojimo ir darbo rinkos tendencijos bei apžvelgiamos pagrindinės grėsmės apdirbamosios pramonės sektoriuje, antroje – verslo atstovų įžvalgos apie eksporto plėtrą.

2018 m. I pusmečio apklausos rezultatai rodo, kad Lietuvos pramonės nuotaikos  išlieka optimistinės  ir šį pusmetį siekia 62 punktus. Vis dėlto, negatyviai nuteikia tai, kad nepaisant sparčios gamybos apimčių ir eksporto plėtros, verslo optimizmas krenta antrą pusmetį iš eilės. Tokia tendencija signalizuoja, jog verslas pastaruoju metu dirba padidintos rizikos aplinkoje.

Vertindami pagrindines veiklos rizikas, respondentai akcentuoja tiek išorinius, tiek ir vidinius faktorius. Išorės rizikų atžvilgiu apklausos dalyviai atkreipia dėmesį į ženkliai išaugusią prekybos karų riziką tolesnei eksporto plėtrai ir padidėjusią politinės arba ekonominės krizės pasaulyje grėsmę. Lietuvos gamintojams taip pat rūpestį kelia ir padidėjusios pasaulinės žaliavų kainos.

Negana to, įmonių vadovai įvardina ir nemažai vidinių rizikos aspektų. Pirma, respondentai ir toliau įžvelgia didelį augančių darbo kaštų spaudimą konkurencingumui bei didelį darbo jėgos (tiek kvalifikuotos, tiek ir nekvalifikuotos) trūkumą. Antra, verslas akcentuoja nepakankamai stabilią reguliacinę aplinką Lietuvoje bei nepakankamą verslo įtraukimą į struktūrinių reformų planavimą bei modeliavimą. Respondentų nuomone, nepamatuoti ir kardinalūs valdžios sprendimai didina verslo aplinkos neapibrėžtumo lygį.

Svarbu atkreipti dėmesį ir į eksporto į Rytų rinkas plėtros įžvalgas. Lietuvos pramonininkų konfederacijos atliktos PLI apklausos rezultatai rodo, kad tik 13 proc. respondentų šiemet planuoja plėtrą į Rusijos rinką, ir tik 20 proc. visų respondentų planuoja plėstis Ukrainos rinkoje. Įdomu ir tai, jog plėtros į Rusijos rinką prognozės labai panašios į plėtros į besivystančias – Brazilijos, Indijos ir Afrikos – rinkas prognozes. Dauguma apklausoje dalyvavusių įmonių nurodo, kad jų tikslinės rinkos yra Vakaruose, o Rusijos ir Ukrainos rinkos yra pernelyg rizikingos ir nestabilios.

Aleksandro Izgorodino, LPK patarėjo ekonomikai komentaras.

Mūsų atliktas didžiųjų pramonės įmonių tyrimas rodo, kad pastaruoju metu didėja atotrūkis tarp faktinių gamybos ir eksporto duomenų bei įmonių lūkesčių ir baimių.

Vertinant faktinius duomenis, matome itin pozityvias tendencijas Lietuvos pramonėje. Vien 2017 metais lietuviškos kilmės eksporto apimtys išaugo dešimtadaliu, pramonės gamybos apimtys augo maždaug 7 proc. Kitas pozityvus aspektas yra tai, kad įmonės rekordiškai apkrauna esamus gamybos pajėgumus, kas demonstruoja augančią užsienio paklausą bei Lietuvos verslo norą papildomai investuoti į gamybos plėtrą.

Tačiau nepaisant pozityvių gamybos ir eksporto tendencijų, antrą pusmetį iš eilės fiksuojame įmonių optimizmo mažėjimą. Kitaip tariant, verslas dirba padidintos rizikos aplinkoje. Verlo optimizmą riboja tokie faktoriai kaip paaštrėjusi geopolitinė aplinka, išliekantis darbo kaštų spaudimas konkurencingumui ir darbo jėgos trūkumas.

Per pastaruosius penkis metus darbo karštai Lietuvos pramonėje padidėjo daugiau kaip 40 proc., tuo tarpu produktyvumas gamyboje išaugo tik apie 14 proc.

Įmonės šiuo metu yra strateginių pasirinkimų kryžkelėje – iš vienos pusės euro zonos ekonomika auga sparčiausiai per pastaruosius 10 metų, o gamybos apkrovimų LT pramonėje yra rekordiškai didelis. Tai skatina dalį gamintojų rimtai svarstyti apie investicijas į gamybos pajėgumų didinimą. Iš kitos pusės – stiprėjantis atlyginimų spaudimas skatina dalį gamintojų investicijas nukreipti į efektyvumo didinimą. Pavyzdžiui, praeitais metais šalies pramonė pagamino 51 proc. daugiau produkcijos nei prieš krizę, tačiau tai padarė su 14 proc. mažesniu darbuotojų skaičiumi.

Pilną Pramonės lūkesčių indeksą galite atsisiųsti ČIA

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