Lietuvos statistikos departamento duomenimis, Lietuvos bendrasis vidaus produktas 2017 m. padidėjo 3,9 proc. Lietuvos ekonomika išlaikė augimo trajektoriją, tačiau lyginant su kelerių praėjusių metų tendencijomis, pasikeitė Lietuvos ekonomikos augimo struktūra: pernai prie Lietuvos ekonomikos augimo labiausiai prisidėjo eksportas, tuo tarpu vidaus vartojimo augimas kiek sulėtėjo.

Natūralu, kad praėję metai buvo sėkmingi ir Lietuvos pramonei, kuri dominuoja Lietuvos eksporto struktūroje ir yra itin priklausoma nuo eksporto rinkų: 2017 m. apdirbamosios gamybos (be naftos produktų) produkcijos apimtys išaugo lygiai 7 proc. Esminės įtakos eksporto ir pramonės plėtrai turėjo vis labiau įsibėgėjantis augimas ES rinkoje, kuriai tenka kiek daugiau nei 80 proc. visų Lietuvos eksporto apimčių. Dabartinis ekonomikos augimas euro zonoje yra sparčiausias per pastarąjį dešimtmetį, o pramonės optimizmas euro zonoje yra bene didžiausias per pastaruosius dvidešimt metų.

Kitas svarbus veiksnys – pajėgumų panaudojimo lygis Lietuvos pramonėje pernai pasiekė absoliučiai aukščiausias reikšmes ir siekia beveik 78 proc. Toks aukštas rezultatas rodo, kad dėl augančios paklausos išorės rinkose Lietuvos gamintojai jau beveik maksimaliai išnaudoja esamus gamybos pajėgumus. Netolimoje ateityje tai gali šiek tiek riboti eksporto plėtrą – ypač turint omeny, kad ES verslo, pramonės ir vartotojų lūkesčiai rodo, kad ES ekonomika artimiausiu metu turėtų dar labiau sustiprėti. Tačiau iš kitos pusės, gamintojų šiuo metu planuojamos investicijos į gamybos pajėgumų plėtrą turėtų būti pamatuotos, įvertinant būsimas rizikas.

Anot Aleksandro Izgorodino, ekonomikos patarėjo, “Taip, šiuo metu ES ir pasaulio ekonomikos augimas vis labiau įsibėgėja, tačiau klausimas – kiek ilgai? Pasaulio akcijų indeksai yra užkilę iki rekordinių aukštumų; neseniai paskelbtas Goldman Sachs rizikos apetito indikatorius rodo, kad rizikos apetitas tarp investuotojų yra didžiausias nuo pat indekso skaičiavimo pradžios 1991 m. Gali būti, kad pasaulio ekonomikos augimas vis labiau artėja prie savo piko ir kažkada netolimoje ateityje ekonomikos ir finansų rinkų euforiją pakeis kur kas niūresnės tendencijos ir korekcijos žemyn. O tai gali reikšti, kad naujos pramonės investicijos į pajėgumų didinimą taip ir neatsipirks – pasaulio ekonomikai važiuojant žemyn, net ir dabartiniai gamybos pajėgumai pramonėje gali būti per dideli.”

Galbūt šiuo metu Lietuvos gamintojams labiau apsimokėtų investuoti į gamybos pajėgumų didinimą per gamybos įrangos ir procesų modernizavimą, produktyvumo didinimą – ypač sparčiai kylančių darbo kaštų kontekste.

 

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