Vertinant dabartinę Lietuvos eksporto „nuotrauką“, šių metų eksporto dinamika atrodo itin pozityviai: per 2017 m. sausio-rugpjūčio mėn., lyginant su praėjusių metų tuo pačiu laikotarpiu, lietuviškos kilmės prekių eksportas (be naftos ir tabako produktų) išaugo beveik dešimtadaliu – tai yra gerokai sparčiau nei per visus 2016 m. (3,5 proc.).

Ypač džiugina LT eksporto rezultatai ES rinkoje, kuriai tenka 80 proc. LT kilmės prekių eksporto apimčių: eksporto augimas į ES rinką paspartėjo iki 11,3 proc. (pernai buvo pasiektas 3,4 proc. augimas). Taip pat, šiemet po ilgos, kelerių metų pertraukos, pagaliau stebime pirmus eksporto į NVS atsigavimo požymius: per šių metų pirmus 8 mėnesius eksportas į NVS rinką išaugo penktadaliu. Taip pat auga eksporto apimtys ir į naujas rinkas, t.y. Azijos ir Šiaurės Amerikos regioną.

Tačiau tai yra tik dabartinė situacija. Nepaisant gerų dabartinių eksporto rodiklių, ir nepaisant gerėjančios makroekonominės situacijos išorės rinkose (ypač ES), LT eksporto plėtra ir jos struktūra (t.y. į kokius regionus ir kokias šalia labiausiai auga eksportas) tampa gana rizikinga. Kitaip kalbant, šalia gerėjančių LT eksporto rodiklių, pastaruoju metu akivaizdžiai padidėjo ir galimų rizikų bei grėsmių lygis. Rizikos kaupiasi ir viduje – t.y. pramonės produktyvumo stagnacija, žemos pridėtinės vertės dominavimas LT eksporto struktūroje ir sparčiai kylantis darbo kaštai.

Augimo prasme Lietuvos eksportas tampa itin priklausomas nuo Skandinavijos rinkų – pavyzdžiui, šiais metais beveik 40 proc. viso Lietuvos eksporto prieaugio yra pasiekta Skandinavijos regione; o per visą laikotarpį 2013-2016 m. 42 proc. viso eksporto prieaugio pasiekta Skandinavijoje. Šiemet Lietuvos eksporto apimtys į Skandinaviją išaugo 17 proc. – tai puikus rezultatas, prie kurio stipriai prisidėjo spartus Skandinavijos ekonomikos augimas.

Kaip komentuoja A. Izgorodinas, patarėjas ekonomikai, “koją tolesnei eksporto plėtrai Skandinavijos rinkose gali pakišti kaistanti nekilnojamojo turto rinka, ypač Švedijoje ir Norvegijoje, ką, pavyzdžiui, rodo OECD duomenys apie NT kainų dinamiką Skandinavijoje. OECD skaičiai rodo, kad NT rinka sparčiausiai kaista Švedijoje, o Švedija yra didžiausia Lietuvos eksporto partnerė Skandinavijos rinkoje – jai tenka net 40 proc. mūsų eksporto į Skandinaviją apimčių. Kitas veiksnys, kuris šiek tiek neramina, yra sparčiai auganti Skandinavijos gyventojų skola. Pavyzdžiui, Švedijoje namų ūkių paskolų įsipareigojimai 2006-2016 m. išaugo nuo 63 proc. BVP iki 85 proc. BVP; Norvegijoje – nuo 70 iki 100 proc. BVP. Danijoje gyventojų turimi paskolų įsipareigojimai siekia 128 proc. BVP (nors po truputį ir mažėja)”.

Šiuo metu sparti statybų ir NT sektorių plėtra kai kuriose Skandinavijos regiono valstybėse bei gyventojų skolinimasis kelia Skandinavijos ekonomiką į viršų – kas atsispindi ir Lietuvos eksporto rodikliuose. Tačiau staigesnė NT rinkos korekcija Skandinavijoje (jeigu tokia įvyktų) gerokai apkarpytų ne tik Lietuvos eksporto rodiklius, tačiau sukeltų rimtų problemų nuo šios rinkos priklausančioms Lietuvos kompanijoms – metas rimtai vertinti situaciją ir daryti konkrečius žingsniu, pvz eksporto rinkų diversifikavimo klausimu.

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